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The myth of decoupling

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  • Sébastien Wälti

Abstract

The decoupling hypothesis is the idea that business cycles in emerging market economies have become more independent from business cycles in advanced economies in recent years. Decoupling essentially amounts to a structural break in the degree of business cycle interdependence between the two groups of economies, and it can be tested as such. We develop an innovative measure of business cycle interdependence based on the Euclidean distance, available at the annual frequency, which allows for a proper test for a structural break in a graphical setup. We also make use of a standard econometric test. Both approaches point to the same conclusion: there has been no decoupling in recent years. If anything, the degree of business cycle interdependence has become stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Wälti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:26:p:3407-3419
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.577015
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Williams, Tomas, 2012. "Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2102-2126.
    2. Daniela Gabor, 2011. "Paradigm shift? A critique of the IMF’s new approach to capital controls," Working Papers 1109, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2012. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 162-175.
    4. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
    6. repec:ilo:ilowps:459401 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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