IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v39y2007i7p893-902.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN

Author

Abstract

A new resolve for both increased economic integration and monetary and exchange rate cooperation has started to emerge in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), especially since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. According to the optimum currency area theory, the degree of trade integration is one of the most important criteria for joining a currency union. The large increase in intra-ASEAN trade in recent years raises the question of whether the ASEAN countries are becoming better prepared to form a currency union. This article sets to test whether the recorded increase in intra-ASEAN trade is leading the ASEAN members to closer economic integration and thus to better satisfy the criteria for a common currency. Two separate models are estimated for that purpose. First, a variation of the model of Frankel and Rose (1997) was estimated for the ASEAN members. Next, a new panel data methodology was conducted. The results with our own model were very significant and robust when four of the ASEAN5 countries were considered, and showed a clear positive correlation between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization in ASEAN. This result has important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common currency in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Cortinhas, 2007. "Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 893-902.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:893-902
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500461907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500461907
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg, 1997. "Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered," Working Papers 1997-01, CEPII research center.
    5. William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Kenen, Peter B., 2000. "Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
    8. Wilson, Peter, 2002. "Prospects for Asian Monetary Cooperation After the Asian Financial Crisis. Pipedream or Possible Reality?," EIJS Working Paper Series 151, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.
    4. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2012. "Power laws and comparative advantage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1483-1507, April.
    5. Sawyer, William C. & Sprinkle, Richard L. & Tochkov, Kiril, 2010. "Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 485-493, October.
    6. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:03:n:s0217590818400064 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:893-902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.