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Intra-Industry Trade and Business Cycles in ASEAN



Recently, a new resolve for both increased economic integration and monetary and exchange rate cooperation has started to emerge in ASEAN, especially since the 1997- 1998 Asian financial crisis. According to the optimum currency area theory, the degree of trade integration is one most important criterion for joining a currency union. The large increase in intra-ASEAN trade in recent years naturally raises the question of whether the ASEAN countries are becoming better prepared to form a currency union. This paper sets to test whether the recorded increase in intra-ASEAN trade is leading the ASEAN members to closer economic integration and thus to better satisfy the criteria for a common currency. Two separate models are estimated for that purpose. First, a variation of the model of Frankel and Rose (1997) was estimated for the ASEAN members. As the results were not very significant, a new methodology that uses the whole sample period data instead of dividing the data into sub-periods was conducted. The results with our own model were very significant and robust when four of the ASEAN5 countries were considered, and showed a clear positive correlation between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization in ASEAN. This result has important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common currency in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Cortinhas, 2005. "Intra-Industry Trade and Business Cycles in ASEAN," NIPE Working Papers 7/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:7/2005

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg, 1997. "Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered," Working Papers 1997-01, CEPII research center.
    3. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
    4. Wilson, Peter, 2002. "Prospects for Asian Monetary Cooperation After the Asian Financial Crisis. Pipedream or Possible Reality?," EIJS Working Paper Series 151, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2012. "Power laws and comparative advantage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1483-1507, April.
    4. Sawyer, William C. & Sprinkle, Richard L. & Tochkov, Kiril, 2010. "Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 485-493, October.
    5. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:03:n:s0217590818400064 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Intra-Industry Trade; Business Cycle Harmonization; Economic Integration; Asean.;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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