Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013.
"Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
- Javier J. Perez & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," EcoMod2012 4694, EcoMod.
- Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal Forecast Errors: Governments Versus Independent Agencies?," Papers RB2014/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- N. Bloom, 2016.
"Fluctuations in uncertainty,"
Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," CEP Occasional Papers 038, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 13-033, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations In Uncertainty," Working Papers 14-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57976, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Park, Young-Joon, 2013. "Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 17(2), pages 103-128, June.
- Sethapramote, Yuthana, 2015. "Synchronization of business cycles and economic policy linkages in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 126-136.
- Carlos Cortinhas, 2007.
"Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 893-902.
- Carlos Cortinhas, 2005. "Intra-Industry Trade and Business Cycles in ASEAN," NIPE Working Papers 7/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Shihan Xie & Tianyin Cheng & Wai-Mun Chia, 2013. "Trade, finance, specialization and synchronization in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 253-270.
- Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016.
"Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
- Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2016. "Business Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Discussion papers 16014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
- Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
- Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011.
"Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
- Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 351-365, January.
- Jean-Pierre Allegret & Essahbi Essaadi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: evidences from time-varying coherence study," Post-Print halshs-00566116, HAL.
- Selover, David D., 1999. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 230-253, September.
- Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
- Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
- Wei Jiang & Yunong Li & Shajuan Zhang, 2019. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 226-241, January.
- Rana, Pradumna Bickram & Cheng, Tianyin & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2012. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 701-706.
- Li, Linyue, 2017. "The impact of intra-industry trade on business cycle synchronization in East Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 143-154.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Morikawa, Masayuki, 2022.
"Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 8-15.
- Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2019. "Uncertainty in Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts: Ex post Evaluation of Forecasts by Economics Researchers," Discussion papers 19084, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017.
"Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
- Garret Binding & Andreas Dibiasi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Investment Plans: Evidence from Swiss Survey Data," KOF Working papers 16-400, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023.
"What Is Certain about Uncertainty?,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.
- Masayuki Morikawa, 2016. "What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 527-540, December.
- Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
- Pedro Costa Ferreira & Raíra Marotta B. Vieira & Felipi Bruno Silva & Ingrid C. L. Oliveira, 2019. "Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 25-40, April.
- Himounet, Nicolas, 2022.
"Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks,"
International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
- Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
- Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020.
"Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
- Jeon, Bang & Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua, 2019. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-8, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
- Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018.
"What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 662-679, August.
- Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2015. "What Are The Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks?," Working Papers hal-04141416, HAL.
- Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2015. "What Are The Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks?," Post-Print hal-02334586, HAL.
- Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2016. "What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks," Staff Working Papers 16-25, Bank of Canada.
- Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Troster Victor & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2022.
"Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
- Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
- Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange, 2024. "How certain are we about the role of uncertainty in the economy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 126-149, January.
- Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
- Angus Moore, 2017.
"Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 550-575, December.
- Angus Moore, 2016. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018.
"Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1639, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1622, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
More about this item
Keywords
ASEAN-6 countries; Prediction error; Economic shock; Uncertainty; Business cycle synchronisation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
- N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-SEA-2022-08-15 (South East Asia)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2022-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ranti Amelia The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ranti Amelia to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eriadid.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.