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Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe

  • Rana, Pradumna Bickram
  • Cheng, Tianyin
  • Chia, Wai-Mun
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    This paper provides a comparative analysis of the relationship between trade intensities and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia and Europe (EU-15). It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004, 2005) by providing a comparative perspective between East Asia and Europe. The paper finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in both regions. The paper also supports the hypothesis that the relationship between trade intensity and output co-movement is stronger in East Asia than in Europe. The major policy implication of this finding is that East Asia needs to further strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination within the region.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007811001072
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 701-706

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:701-706
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    1. Pradumna B. Rana, 2008. "Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case Of East Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 279-292.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
    4. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," Research Department Publications 4315, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 104-123, April.
    6. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6798.
    7. Andrew K. Rose & Charles Engel, 2000. "Currency Unions and International Integration," NBER Working Papers 7872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    10. Richard Baldwin & Theresa Carpenter, 2010. "A 3-Bloc Dance: East Asian Regionalism And The North Atlantic Trade Giants," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(01), pages 27-47.
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