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Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India

  • Shruthi Jayaram

    (NIPFP)

  • Ila Patnaik
  • Ajay Shah

This paper examines the decoupling hypothesis for India. We analyse business cycle synchronisation between India and a set of industrial economies, particularly the United States, over the period 1992 to 2008. The evidence suggests that the Indian business cycle exhibits increasing co-movement with business cycles in industrial economies over this period. Indian business cycle synchronisation is stronger with industrial countries as a whole as opposed to the co-movement found with the US.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22972
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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 22972.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:22972
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  1. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
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  4. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
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  6. Kehoe, Patrick, 2005. "Comment on: "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 159-162, January.
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  8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  9. Cigdem Akin & Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Changing Nature of North-South Linkages; Stylized Facts and Explanations," IMF Working Papers 07/280, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 02/229, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  13. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Business Cycles in India," Working Papers id:1132, eSocialSciences.
  14. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
  15. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
  16. repec:hhs:bofitp:2008_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. C. John McDermott & Eswar S Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  19. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  20. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka & Bátorová, Ivana, 2008. "China in the world economy : dynamic correlation analysis of business cycles," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  21. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
  23. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  24. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  25. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  26. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
  27. Chan, Tze-Haw & Khong, Wye Leong Roy, 2007. "Business Cycle Correlation and Output Linkages among the Asia Pacific Economies," MPRA Paper 11305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2008.
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