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Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

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  • Zsolt Darvas
  • György Szapáry

Abstract

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.
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  • Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-007-9027-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; Consumption-correlation puzzle; EMU; New EU members; OCA endogeneity; E32; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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