Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a near doubling in bilateral trade.
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- Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000.
"Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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- J. Ernesto López-Córdova and Chris Meissner., 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-118, University of California at Berkeley.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1998.
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NBER Working Papers
6150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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