Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
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NBER Working Papers
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qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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- J. Ernesto López-Córdova and Chris Meissner., 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-118, University of California at Berkeley.
- Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
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