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One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade

  • Rose, Andrew


    (Haas School of Busines)

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. The panel data set I use includes bilateral observations for five years spanning 1970 through 1990 for 1986 countires. In this data set, there are over one hundred pairings and three hundred observations, in which both countries use the same currency. I find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade, and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenuous nature of the exchange rate regime. These effects are statistically significant and imply that two countires that share the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different curencies. EMU may thus lead to a large increase in international trade, with all that entails.

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Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 678.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0678
Note: Preliminary version
Contact details of provider: Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-8-162000
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