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A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade

  • Andrew K. Rose
  • T. D. Stanley

Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of this effect. This paper uses meta-analysis to combine, explain, and to summarize these disparate estimates of common currency trade effects. The hypothesis that there is no effect of currency union on trade is easily and robustly rejected at standard significance levels. Combining these estimates implies that a currency union increases bilateral trade by between 30 and 90%. Although there is evidence of publication selection, there is also evidence of a genuine positive trade effect beyond publication bias. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 347-365

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:19:y:2005:i:3:p:347-365
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
  3. Melitz, Jacques, 2002. "Language and Foreign Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  5. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
  6. Jacques Melitz, 2003. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," Working Papers 2003-25, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  7. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Working Papers hal-01065006, HAL.
  8. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "On the impact of a common currency on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 125-129, April.
  11. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
  13. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  15. Klein, Michael W., 2005. "Dollarization and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 935-943, October.
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  17. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  18. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Wolf, Nikolaus & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period," Papers 2004,10, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  20. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  21. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  22. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
  23. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/607 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  25. Christie Smith, 2002. "Currency unions and gravity models revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  26. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  27. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
  28. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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