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A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade

  • Andrew K. Rose
  • T. D. Stanley

Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of this effect. This paper uses meta-analysis to combine, explain, and to summarize these disparate estimates of common currency trade effects. The hypothesis that there is no effect of currency union on trade is easily and robustly rejected at standard significance levels. Combining these estimates implies that a currency union increases bilateral trade by between 30 and 90%. Although there is evidence of publication selection, there is also evidence of a genuine positive trade effect beyond publication bias. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 347-365

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:19:y:2005:i:3:p:347-365
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Melitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
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  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  5. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  7. Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Melitz, Jacques, 2008. "Language and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 667-699, May.
  10. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  13. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Flandreau, Marc & Maurel, Mathilde, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," CEPR Discussion Papers 3087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  17. Christie Smith, 2002. "Currency unions and gravity models revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
  19. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "On the impact of a common currency on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 125-129, April.
  20. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  22. Klein, Michael W., 2005. "Dollarization and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 935-943, October.
  23. repec:dgr:uvatin:2002108 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Andrew K. Rose & Charles Engel, 2000. "Currency Unions and International Integration," NBER Working Papers 7872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
  26. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
  27. repec:idb:brikps:6511 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
  29. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/607 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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