IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions

  • Jayjit Roy

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and currency unions (CUs) share the characteristic of being poten- tially endogenous proxies for trade costs in gravity equations. In both cases, this problem is magnified by the paucity of reliable instruments. Instead of resorting to the oft-employed alternative of panel data to address selection on just the time-invariant unobservables, this paper assesses the extent to which the positive association between CU or RTA membership and bilateral trade can be considered causal. Despite not identifying point estimates, striking results are obtained when looking at overall trade and extensive margins. Although most cross-sections exhibit a positive association between both RTAs and CUs and overall bilateral trade, the evidence in favor of a causal e¤ect is strong only for CUs. Interestingly, for recent years, there exists strong evidence in support of both RTAs and CUs causing trade at the extensive margin. However, the magnitude of either e¤ect is sensitive to the amount of selection on unobservables. Key Words: Regional Trade Agreements, Currency Unions, Gravity Model

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1009.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 10-09.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:10-09
Contact details of provider: Postal: Thelma C. Raley Hall, Boone, North Carolina 28608
Phone: 828-262-2148
Fax: 828-262-6105
Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
  2. Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 4341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jayjit Roy, 2010. "Do Customs Union Members Engage in More Bilateral Trade than Free-Trade Agreement Members?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 663-681, 09.
  4. Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," CEPR Discussion Papers 7824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
  6. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2009. "WTO membership and the extensive margin of world trade: New evidence," Munich Reprints in Economics 20606, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  7. Daniel J. Henderson & Daniel L. Millimet, 2008. "Is gravity linear?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 137-172.
  8. Pao-li Chang & Myoung-jae Lee, 2007. "The WTO Trade Effect," Trade Working Papers 22063, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  10. Pravin Krishna, 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the World Trade System: A Multilateralist View," NBER Working Papers 17840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Melitz, Jacques, 2002. "Language and Foreign Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72.
  13. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  14. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
  15. Silvana Tenreyro & Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Economic Effects of Currency Unions," NBER Working Papers 9435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Millimet, Daniel L. & Tchernis, Rusty & Husain, Muna, 2008. "School Nutrition Programs and the Incidence of Childhood Obesity," IZA Discussion Papers 3664, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2010. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 3253, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
  19. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  20. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  21. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July.
  22. Millimet, Daniel L. & Tchernis, Rusty, 2009. "On the Specification of Propensity Scores, With Applications to the Analysis of Trade Policies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 397-415.
  23. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  24. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  25. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
  26. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, 02.
  27. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2000. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," NBER Working Papers 7831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Issues on the choice of Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Boards – An Analytical Survey," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 855, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  29. Andrew K. Rose & Charles Engel, 2000. "Currency Unions and International Integration," NBER Working Papers 7872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Gianluca Orefice, 2013. "International Migration and Trade Agreements: the new role of PTAs," FIW Working Paper series 111, FIW.
  31. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Greenaway, David, 2008. "The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 278-298, March.
  32. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
  34. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "The Bahamas; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 99/106, International Monetary Fund.
  35. James M. Boughton, 1991. "The CFA Franc Zone; Currency Union and Monetary Standard," IMF Working Papers 91/133, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 1276, CESifo Group Munich.
  37. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Sciences Po publications n°3087, Sciences Po.
  38. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Kurt Schuler, 2005. "Some Theory and History of Dollarization," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 115-125, Winter.
  40. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
  41. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  42. Fiorentino, Roberto V. & Verdeja, Luis & Toqueboeuf, Christelle, 2007. "The changing landscape of regional trade agreements: 2006 Update," WTO Discussion Papers 12, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  43. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
  44. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp08-076, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  45. Pandej Chintrakarn, 2008. "Estimating the Euro Effects on Trade with Propensity Score Matching," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 186-198, 02.
  46. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  47. Josh Ederington & Jenny Minier, 2000. "Is Environmental Policy a Secondary Trade Barrier? An Empirical Analysis," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1507, Econometric Society.
  48. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
  49. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Xuepeng Liu, 2009. "GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 428-446, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:10-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (O. Ashton Morgan)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.