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Instrumental-Variable Estimation Of Exponential Regression Models With Two-Way Fixed Effects With An Application To Gravity Equations

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  • Jochmans, Koen
  • Verardi, Vincenzo

Abstract

This paper introduces instrumental-variable estimators for exponential-regression models that feature two-way fixed effects. These techniques allow us to develop a theory-consistent approach to the estimation of cross-sectional gravity equations that can accommodate the endogeneity of policy variables. We apply this approach to a data set in which the policy decision of interest is the engagement in a free trade agreement. We explore ways to exploit the transitivity observed in the formation of trade agreements to construct instrumental variables with considerable predictive ability. Within a bilateral model, the use of these instruments has strong theoretical foundations. We obtain point estimates of the partial effect of a preferential-trade agreement on trade volume that range between 20% and 30% and find no statistical evidence of endogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochmans, Koen & Verardi, Vincenzo, 2021. "Instrumental-Variable Estimation Of Exponential Regression Models With Two-Way Fixed Effects With An Application To Gravity Equations," TSE Working Papers 21-1271, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:126195
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bias correction; count data; differencing estimator; endogeneity; fixed effects; gravity equation; instrumental variable; transitivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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