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Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9273
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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