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Geography, Trade and Currency Union

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  • Melitz, Jacques

Abstract

This Paper reports on four basic results of tests of the standard gravity equation. First, geography can serve to reflect comparative advantage as well as transportation costs. Second, the effect of distance on bilateral trade is mostly a substitution effect between closer and more distant trade partners rather than a scale effect on total foreign trade. Third, special political relationships, such as free trade agreements, former colonial attachments, and currency union, do not produce any trade diversion in the aggregate, but increase trade with outsiders as well as among the parties to the relationship. Fourth, Rose’s surprisingly high estimate of the impact of currency union on trade stems partly from a selection bias, but even following a correction for this bias, the estimate remains high.

Suggested Citation

  • Melitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2987
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, February.
    2. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    4. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    5. Matthias Lutz, 2003. "Price Convergence under EMU? First Estimates," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    6. Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 711-730, November.
    7. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2005. "What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, May.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," NBER Working Papers 14542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Working Papers hal-01065006, HAL.
    13. De Benedictis Luca & Vicarelli Claudio, 2005. "Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, September.
    14. James Yetman, 2007. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows And Capital Flows," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 189-204, May.
    15. Stein, Ernesto & Daude, Christian, 2007. "Longitude matters: Time zones and the location of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 96-112, March.
    16. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Monetary Integration Ahead of Trade Integration in East Asia?," ISER Discussion Paper 0572, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    17. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro's trade effects," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank.
    18. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
    19. Antoni Estevadeordal & Matthew Shearer & Kati Suominen, 2009. "Market Access Provisions in Regional Trade Agreement," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9311, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    21. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bilateral trade; free trade area; geography; gravity; monetary union; trade creation; trade diversion;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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