IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Currency unions in prospect and retrospect

  • J.M.C. Santos Silva
  • Silvana Tenreyro

We critically review the recent literature on currency unions, and discuss the methodological challenges posed by the empirical assessment of their costs and benefits. In the process, we provide evidence on the economic effects of the euro. In particular, and in contrast with estimates of the trade effect of other currency unions, we find that the impact of the euro on trade has been close to zero. After reviewing the costs and benefits, we conclude with some open questions on normative and positive aspects of the theory of currency unions, emphasizing the need for a unified welfare-based framework to weigh their costs and gains.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/28738/
File Function: Open access version.
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 28738.

as
in new window

Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:28738
Contact details of provider: Postal:
LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.

Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alberto F. Alesina & Andrea Stella, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, 01.
  3. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
  4. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5312, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Giovannini, Alberto, 1989. "Monetary Policy Interactions under Managed Exchange Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(222), pages 199-213, May.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445.
  7. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2008. "Financial Market Integration under EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 312, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Baldwin, Richard & Di Nino, Virginia, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Varadarajan V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time Inconsistency and Free-Riding in a Monetary Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1329-1356, October.
  11. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  12. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  13. Philippe Martin and H�l�ne Rey., 2000. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-110, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Matteo Bugamelli & Fabiano Schivardi & Roberta Zizza, 2008. "The Euro and Firm Restructuring," NBER Working Papers 14454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  16. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1998. "On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Working Papers 589, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2004. "Overturning Mundell : Fiscal policy in a monetary union," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00266420, HAL.
  18. Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  20. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
  21. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  22. Tamim Bayoumi & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 36-58, March.
  23. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
  24. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
  25. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  26. Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, 04.
  27. Martine Carré & Fabrice Collard, 1999. "Monetary Union : A Welfare Based Approach," Working Papers 99-62, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  28. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  29. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 1435, CESifo Group Munich.
  30. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
  31. Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2000. "Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 8043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March.
  33. Stephen Ching & Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "Mundell Revisited: a Simple Approach to the Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 674-691, 09.
  34. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  35. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
  36. Sibert, Anne, 1992. "Government finance in a common currency area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 567-578, December.
  37. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  39. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
  40. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1992. "Policy-Delegation and Fixed Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(4), pages 849-70, November.
  42. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Fiscal Flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for Monetary Union in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. anonymous, 1989. "New Zealand economic chronology 1988," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, march.
  45. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2000. "The Political Economy of Labour Market Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293323, July.
  46. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  47. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  48. anonymous, 1989. "Reserve Bank economic forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, june.
  49. Aizenman, Joshua, 1992. "Competitive Externalities and the Optimal Seigniorage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 61-71, February.
  50. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
  51. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
  52. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
  53. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "Costs and benefits of running an international currency," European Economy - Economic Papers 348, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  54. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union," Working Papers 240, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  55. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  56. Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Currency Unions," Scholarly Articles 4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  57. Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  58. von Hagen, Jurgen & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Federalism, Fiscal Restraints, and European Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 134-38, May.
  59. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  60. Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 751-776, 09.
  61. Charles Engel, 1999. "Local-Currency Pricing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," Working Papers 0036, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  62. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
  64. Harry Flam & Hakan Nordström, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 1881, CESifo Group Munich.
  65. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  67. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2008. "The Euro Effects on the Firm and Product-Level Trade Margins: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2008-21, CEPII research center.
  68. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
  69. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, February.
  70. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  71. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
  72. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  73. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  74. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
  75. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
  76. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1991. "Fiscal deficits, financial integration, and a central bank for Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 381-403, December.
  77. Ester Faia, 2005. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in A Currency Area," Working Papers 97, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  78. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
  79. José de Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2007. "Does political disintegration lead to trade disintegration?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 15, pages 825-843, October.
  80. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
  82. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  84. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  85. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:28738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.