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Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in A Currency Area

I propose a unitary framework to interpret the links between differences in financial structures and the monetary policy regimes on the one hand, and the correlation of business cycles on the other. Using a two-country micro-founded model with financial frictions I predict that a greater financial diversity should reduce cyclical correlation under a given monetary regime, and that moving from independent monetary policies to a hard peg or a common currency should increase it, for any given degree of financial diversity. I use the recent experience of EMU to test these ideas, and show that my model explains reasonably well the broad patterns of business cycle correlation observed recently among the main euro area countries.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 97.

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Length: 50
Date of creation: 12 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:97
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  1. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  7. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
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  18. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy; Is there Heterogeneity? Is+L2203 it Changing Over Time?," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  23. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  24. Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marimon, Ramon, 1998. "An EMU with Different Transmission Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 2016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  26. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
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  29. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1999. "Investor Protection: Origins, Consequences, Reform," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1883, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  33. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521783248 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
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