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The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?

  • Matteo Ciccarelli


    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Alessandro Rebucci


    (International Monetary Fund)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has already moved interest rates several times since it started to operate in January 1999 and yet we don't know what the magnitude and timing of the effects of its actions actually are. What are the effects on prices and output of a change in the common short-term interest rate? How long do these effects take to materialize? Are there differences in the impact across European countries and regions? Are these differences changing over time? We propose to overcome some of these difficulties by rephrasing some of the questions above in the framework of a dynamic heterogenous panel data model recently proposed by Canova and Ciccarelli (2000).

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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0115.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0115
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  1. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
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  4. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
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  7. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  8. Luca Sala, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: A Factor Model Approach," Macroeconomics 0205005, EconWPA, revised 15 May 2002.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  14. Matteo Ciccarelli, 2001. "Testing Restrictions In Normal Data Models Using Gibbs Sampling," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-17, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  15. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
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  17. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industry Data of Five OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1833, Econometric Society.
  19. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  20. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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