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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

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  • Zeno Enders

    () (University of Bonn)

  • Gernot J. Müller

    () (University of Bonn)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We develop a two-country business cycle model and show that the calibrated model is able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We find that the euro has a strong bearing on the transmission mechanism as cross-country spillovers increase substantially under EMU. As a result, foreign shocks become more and domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?," Working Papers 162, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:162
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    1. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cardi, Olivier & Sen, Partha, 2013. "Deregulation shock in product market and unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 711-734.
    2. Martin Geiger & Richard Hule, 2016. "Correlation and coordination risk," Working Papers 2016-19, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    3. Evers, Michael P., 2015. "Fiscal federalism and monetary unions: A quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 59-75.
    4. Vella, Eugenia & Dioikitopoulos, Evangelos V. & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2015. "Green Spending Reforms, Growth, And Welfare With Endogenous Subjective Discounting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1240-1260, September.
    5. Bussiere Matthieu & Chudik Alexander & Mehl Arnaud, 2013. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro’s creation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-48, April.
    6. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    7. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    9. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:4:p:856-890 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
    11. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
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    13. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    14. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
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    16. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.
    17. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
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    19. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Volatility in European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 697-720, November.
    20. Achim Wambach & Ines Läufer, 2015. "Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Lernen aus der Krise," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 02/2015, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European business cycles; Euro; Optimum Currency Area; EMU; Monetary Policy; Exchange rate regime; Cross-country spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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