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Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium

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  • Oleg Itskhoki
  • Dmitry Mukhin

Abstract

We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model of exchange rate determination, which simultaneously accounts for all major puzzles associated with nominal and real exchange rates. This includes the Meese-Rogoff disconnect puzzle, the PPP puzzle, the terms-of-trade puzzle, the Backus- Smith puzzle, and the UIP puzzle. The model has two main building blocks — the driving force (or the exogenous shock process) and the transmission mechanism — both crucial for the quantitative success of the model. The transmission mechanism — which relies on strategic complementarities in price setting, weak substitutability between domestic and foreign goods, and home bias in consumption — is tightly disciplined by the micro-level empirical estimates in the recent international macroeconomics literature. The driving force is an exogenous small but persistent shock to international asset demand, which we prove is the only type of shock that can generate the exchange rate disconnect properties. We then show that a model with this financial shock alone is quantitatively consistent with the moments describing the dynamic comovement between exchange rates and macro variables. Nominal rigidities improve on the margin the quantitative performance of the model, but are not necessary for exchange rate disconnect, as the driving force does not rely on the monetary shocks. We extend the analysis to multiple shocks and an explicit model of the financial sector to address the additional Mussa puzzle and Engel’s risk premium puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2017. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 23401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23401
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2017-05-22 00:58:55

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    Cited by:

    1. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Lilley, Andrew & Maggiori, Matteo & Neiman, Brent & Schreger, Jesse, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," CEPR Discussion Papers 13869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
    4. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2019. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_021, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    6. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    7. Cao, Dan & Evans, Martin & Lua, Wenlan, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Beyond Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 99054, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2020.
    8. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2018. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 352, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. López-Martín Bernabé, 2019. "Firm Export Dynamics and the Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," Working Papers 2019-05, Banco de México.
    10. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    11. López-Martín Bernabé & Ramírez de Aguilar Alberto & Sámano Daniel, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2018-18, Banco de México.
    12. Du, Wenxin & Im, Joanne & Schreger, Jesse, 2018. "The U.S. Treasury Premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 167-181.
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    14. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    15. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Giancarlo Corsetti & Anna Lipinska & Giovanni Lombardo, 2019. "Asset Prices and Risk Sharing. The Valuation Effects of Capital Market Integration," 2019 Meeting Papers 679, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Stona, Filipe & Caldeira, João F., 2019. "Do U.S. factors impact the Brazilian yield curve? Evidence from a dynamic factor model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 76-89.
    18. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Identification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 23968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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