IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University)

  • Erkko Etula

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Tobias Adrian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

We present evidence that the funding liquidity aggregates of U.S. financial intermediaries forecast exchange rate growth---at weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and for a large set of currencies. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in an intertemporal equilibrium pricing model where the "risk appetite" of dollar-funded intermediaries fluctuates with the tightness of their balance sheet constraints. Our empirical evidence shows that this channel is separate from the more familiar "carry trade" channel.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2010/paper_311.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 311.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:311
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Helene Rey & Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," 2005 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  3. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 10071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  5. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2011. "When Bonds Matter: Home Bias in Goods and Assets," NBER Working Papers 17560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Shin, Hyun Song & Adrian, Tobias, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 287-334.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Ozge Senay & Alan Sutherland, 2014. "Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 921-959, 08.
  8. Erkko Etula, 2009. "Broker-dealer risk appetite and commodity returns," Staff Reports 406, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
  10. Gianluca Benigno & Hande Küçük-Tuger, 2011. "Portfolio Allocation and International Risk Sharing," CEP Discussion Papers dp1048, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  12. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  15. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
  17. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  18. Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "International Asset Markets and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 688-705, July.
  19. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2008. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1363-1375, November.
  22. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2008. "Country portfolios in open economy macro models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  23. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  25. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2010. "Understanding the effect of productivity changes on international relative prices: the role of news shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  26. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
  27. Cédric Tille & Eric Van Wincoop, 2007. "International capital flows," Staff Reports 280, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  29. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  30. Luis Opazo, 2006. "The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 395, Central Bank of Chile.
  31. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Evolving Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 167-72, May.
  33. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 12916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  35. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky; It's Really About Exchange-Rate Hedging, not Equity Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 09/12, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  38. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  39. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  40. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  41. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
  43. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  44. Philip R. Lane and Jay C. Shambaugh, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp253, IIIS.
  45. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
  46. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 144-89, January.
  47. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  49. Dongho Song, 2014. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  50. Richard Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2007. "Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 13010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed010:311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.