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What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Alain P. Chaboud

Abstract

This paper examines the available data that may shed light on the carry trade in Japanese yen. We define an individual or a sector to be engaged in the carry trade if it has a short position in yen and a long position in other currencies. The tendency of large yen movements to be skewed toward appreciations is consistent with the existence of substantial carry positions, and other evidence from market prices provides some modest support for an effect from the carry trade. Data on bank loans and bond holdings by currency reveal a large apparent yen carry position of the Japanese official sector and modest carry positions in the Japanese and foreign banking sectors. The Japanese private non-banking sector has a large long foreign-currency position, but does not have a short yen position, and is thus not engaged in the yen carry trade in the aggregate. However, it is possible that exporters and investors in Japan use the derivatives markets to hedge some of their long foreign-currency exposure, with the private non-banking sector outside of Japan (including most hedge funds) likely to be taking on most of the associated carry exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vistesen, Claus, 2008. "Of Low Yielders and Carry Trading – the JPY and CHF as Market Risk Sentiment Gauges," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    3. Zuzana Stuchlíková, 2013. "Japanese Economy After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3), pages 51-67.
    4. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.
    5. Kaizoji, Taisei, 2010. "Carry Trade, Forward Premium Puzzle and Currency Crisis," MPRA Paper 21432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    7. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    8. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Shin, Hyun Song, 2009. "Risk appetite and exchange Rates," Staff Reports 361, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 10 Dec 2015.
    9. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1107-1125, September.
    10. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2012. "Risk appetite, carry trade and exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 48-63.
    11. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
    12. Corinne Winters, 2008. "The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen," Discussion Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada.
    13. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
    14. Cho-Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2009. "Liquidity, Risk Appetite and Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Working Papers 0911, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    15. Claus VISTESEN, 2009. "Carry Trade Fundamentals And The Financial Crisis 2007-2010," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    16. Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
    17. Fong, Wai Mun, 2013. "Footprints in the market: Hedge funds and the carry trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 41-59.
    18. Hossfeld, Oliver & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Carry funding and safe haven currencies: A threshold regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 185-202.
    19. Shakill Hassan & Sean Smith, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target: Risk, Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 235, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    20. Zuzana Stuchlíková, 2013. "Japanese Economy in 2007-2010," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(2), pages 55-68.
    21. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
    22. Marie Briere & Bastien Drut, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Working Papers CEB 09-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    23. Bruno Freitas Boynard de Vasconcelos & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2014. "Banking Systemic Risk, Foreign Funding, Exchange Rate Exposure and Carry Trade: is there a relation?," Working Papers Series 365, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
    25. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates ; Yen; Japanese ; Interest rates;

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