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Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?

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  • Hochradl, Markus
  • Wagner, Christian

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether trading the forward bias allows for economically significant excess returns. We find that bias-trading strategies can be viewed as attractive investment opportunities per se, useful diversification devices, and promising portfolio extensions for active fund managers trying to beat their benchmarks. The empirical results, which also mirror the problems arising in attempts to explain the puzzle by risk-premia, are consistent with market evidence that the bias is traded in practice. Overall, our findings suggest that limits to speculation are unlikely to provide a (stand-alone) explanation for the persistence of the forward bias.

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  • Hochradl, Markus & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:423-441
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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Egbers, Tom & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-26.
    3. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    4. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
    5. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "What explains the initial return of initial public offerings after the 1997 Asian financial crisis? Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 89-113.
    6. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
    7. Bai, Shuming & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2010. "Currency crisis and the forward discount bias: Evidence from emerging economies under breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 556-574, December.
    8. Pippenger, John, 2013. "The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Bias And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt50n5p8bv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    9. Pippenger, John E, 2010. "The Solution to the Forward-Bias and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6br3599r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    10. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis," MPRA Paper 51591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
    13. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
    14. Pippenger, John, 2015. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles: The Role Of Monetary Policy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    15. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    16. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    17. André Mollick & Tibebe Assefa, 2013. "Carry-trades on the yen and the Swiss franc: are they different?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 402-423, July.
    18. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Pippenger, John, 2012. "What Covered Interest Parity Implies about the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0zk6t2hj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    20. Pippenger, John, 2011. "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 296-304, April.
    21. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    22. Potì, Valerio & Siddique, Akhtar, 2013. "What drives currency predictability?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-106.
    23. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    24. Boschen, John F. & Smith, Kimberly J., 2016. "The uncovered interest rate parity anomaly and trading activity by non-dealer financial firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 333-342.

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