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A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle

  • Breedon, Francis
  • Rime, Dagfinn
  • Vitale, Paolo

Using a market microstructure analytical framework we decompose the FX forward discount bias into elements due to time-varying risk premia (related to EBS order flow) and forecast errors derived using the Reuters survey of FX market participants. We find that both elements are significant contributors to the forward bias with risk premia being particularly important in currency pairs traditionally associated with carry trade activity. Part of order flow is driven by carry trade, and from our decomposition the carry trade driven risk premia account for about 50% of the forward bias.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7791.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7791
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  1. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
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  8. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An empirical study of liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates," Working Paper Series 0424, European Central Bank.
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  25. repec:dgr:kubcen:199707 is not listed on IDEAS
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