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The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence

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  • Dagfinn Rime

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Hans Jørgen Tranvåg

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagfinn Rime & Hans Jørgen Tranvåg, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper 2012/01, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kwang-Myoung Hwang & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Capital Market Openness and Output Volatility," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 403-430, August.
    3. Havran, Dániel & Erb, Tamás, 2015. "Mit veszítünk a piaci súrlódásokkal?. A pénzügyi piacok mikrostruktúrája [Trading mechanisms and market frictions. Microstructure of the financial markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 229-262.
    4. Kleinbrod, Vincent M. & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "Order flow and exchange rate comovement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 199-215.
    5. David Cook & James Yetman, 2014. "Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 135-151, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Order flow; microstructure; Asian and Australasian exchange rates; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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