IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2012_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence

Author

Listed:
  • Dagfinn Rime

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Hans Jørgen Tranvåg

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagfinn Rime & Hans Jørgen Tranvåg, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper 2012/01, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/Papers/Working-Papers/2012/WP-201201/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth S. Rogoff (ed.), 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523140, April.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    6. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
    7. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    9. Eva Kislingerová, 2011. "Předmluva," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 1-4.
    10. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 7, pages 291-324, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
    12. Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
    13. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional‐Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, June.
    14. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "Order Flows and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 15, pages 599-643, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    16. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    17. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2011. "Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1599-1624, December.
    18. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
    19. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.
    20. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    21. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    22. Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "Foreign exchange market structure, players and evolution," Working Paper 2011/10, Norges Bank.
    23. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, April.
    24. Chul Park, Yung & Chung, Chae-Shick & Wang, Yunjong, 2001. "Fear of Floating: Korea's Exchange Rate Policy after the Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 225-251, June.
    25. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
    26. Martin D. D. Evans, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9475.
    27. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    28. Nick Smyth, 2009. "Order flow and exchange rate changes: A look at the NZD/USD and AUD/USD," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    29. Michael R King & Dagfinn Rime, 2011. "The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    30. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun H. Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2009. "Fear Of Floating In East Asia?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 176-193, May.
    32. Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip, 2018. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 40-55.
    2. Kwang-Myoung Hwang & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Capital Market Openness and Output Volatility," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 403-430, August.
    3. Havran, Dániel & Erb, Tamás, 2015. "Mit veszítünk a piaci súrlódásokkal?. A pénzügyi piacok mikrostruktúrája [Trading mechanisms and market frictions. Microstructure of the financial markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 229-262.
    4. Kleinbrod, Vincent M. & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "Order flow and exchange rate comovement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 199-215.
    5. David Cook & James Yetman, 2014. "Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 135-151, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "Order Flows and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 15, pages 599-643, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    9. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2010. "International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 358-386, March.
    11. Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2011. "The Impact of Order Flow on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Copula Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 1-31, March.
    12. Mulder, Arjen & Tims, Ben, 2018. "Conditioning carry trades: Less risk, more return," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Martin D. D. Evans & Dagfinn Rime, 2017. "Order Flow Information and Spot Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 17, pages 725-776, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
    15. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    16. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    17. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    18. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2008. "What Drives the Dynamic Conditional Correlation of Foreign Exchange and Equity Returns?," MPRA Paper 7174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    20. Lock, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Flujos de órdenes en el mercado cambiario y el valor intrínseco del Nuevo Sol," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 33-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Order flow; microstructure; Asian and Australasian exchange rates; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.