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Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates

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  • Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg
  • Mr. Subhanij Tientip
  • Mr. Mico Loretan

Abstract

We demonstrate empirically that not all capital flows influence exchange rates equally: Capital flows induced by foreign investors’ stock market transactions have both an economically significant and a permanent impact on exchange rates, whereas capital flows induced by foreign investors’ transactions in government bond markets do not. We relate these differences in the price impact of capital flows to differences in the amounts of private information conveyed by these flows. Our empirical findings are based on novel, daily-frequency datasets on prices and quantities of all transactions of foreign investors in the stock, bond, and onshore FX markets of Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mr. Subhanij Tientip & Mr. Mico Loretan, 2012. "Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2012/213, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/213
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    6. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    7. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Nikas, Christos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2023. "Turkey: From a thriving economic past towards a rugged future? - An empirical analysis on the Turkish financial markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Djeutem, Edouard & Dunbar, Geoffrey R., 2022. "Uncovered return parity: Equity returns and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Nasha Ananchotikul & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/156, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    11. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2016.
    12. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; FX order flow; FX transaction; FX dealer; Thai baht; bond order flow; bond order flow series; component FX order flow; customer order flow; FX order flow shock; FX risk; FX swap order flow; swap transaction; Order flow; private information; exchange rate models; market microstructure; exchange rate fluctuation; responses to FX order flow shock; FX order flow regression; flow series; Citibank customer order flow; Stock markets; Currency markets; Securities markets; Exchange rates; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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