IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Timing exchange rates using order flow: The case of the Loonie

  • King, Michael
  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Sojli, Elvira

This paper examines the relation between the Canadian dollar/US dollar (CAD) exchange rate and foreign exchange order flow employing a novel data set on CAD order flow over the period 1994-2005. We investigate empirically the predictive information content and the determinants of order flow. The results suggest that order flow has strong out-of-sample predictive power for CAD returns, yielding significant market timing ability and tangible economic gains in a stylized dynamic asset allocation context. In terms of its determinants, order flow appears to reflect not only the menu of macroeconomic variables typically suggested in the literature but is also closely related to commodity price fluctuations, as expected from a 'commodity currency'.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 2917-2928

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2917-2928
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
  3. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  5. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  6. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
  8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
  11. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2008. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank.
  15. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
  16. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
  17. David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," International Finance Discussion Papers 830, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Understanding order flow," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
  20. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
  21. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
  22. Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
  23. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  24. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Richard Payne, 2003. "Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp475, Financial Markets Group.
  27. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2007. "The microstructure of the Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate: A robustness test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 426-432, March.
  28. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2009. "Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1741-1754, October.
  29. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2007. "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2199-2206, December.
  31. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  32. Kaul, Aditya & Sapp, Stephen, 2009. "Trading activity, dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2122-2131, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2917-2928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.