IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market

  • Michael Frömmel
  • Norbert Kiss M.
  • Klára Pintér

We investigate the relation between the EUR/HUF exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand using intraday data. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the intraday exchange rate – independent from whether we focus on the mean or the volatility – depends on both news announcements and order flow. We conclude that news on the EUR/HUF market are transmitted directly via immediate reactions to news announcements as well as indirectly via order flow. We decompose the news’ total effect on exchange rate and find that order flow accounts for approximately three quarters, compared to one quarter for direct news impact. Although the HUF has been pegged to the EUR, the exchange rate reacts qualitatively very similarly to exchange rates of major currencies as reported in the literature, but quantitatively we observe a remarkable difference: the share of the indirect channel is higher on the EUR/HUF market. Furthermore we extend the commonly used news by communication of central bankers and significantly improve the explanatory power of the regressions. Our results imply that macroeconomic and microstructure variables together can explain a non-negligible part of high frequency exchange rate movements and central bank communication is an important determinant of the EUR/HUF rate.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 172-188

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:16:y:2011:i:2:p:172-188
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

Order Information: Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid & GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2003029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
  3. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  5. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-61, July.
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  7. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  8. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
  9. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Were Verbal Efforts to Support the Euro Effective? A High-Frequency Analysis of ECB Statements," DNB Working Papers 033, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  10. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
  11. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.
  13. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
  14. Richard Payne, 2003. "Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp475, Financial Markets Group.
  15. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  17. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  18. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  19. Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2001. "Risk Reduction in the EMS? Evidence from Trends in Exchange Rate Properties," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 285-306, 06.
  20. Alexis Derviz, 2003. "FOREX Microstructure, Invisible Price Determinants,and the Central Bank's Understanding of Exchange Rate Formation," Working Papers 2003/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  21. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
  23. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
  24. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80.
  25. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Lee, Raymond S. K. & Melvin, Michael, 2001. "'Once-in-a-generation' yen volatility in 1998: fundamentals, intervention, and order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 327-347, June.
  26. Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "A Guided Tour of the Market Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," CEPR Discussion Papers 4530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005. "Do currency markets absorb news quickly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
  28. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
  29. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  30. Áron Gereben & Norbert Kiss M., 2006. "A brief overview of the characteristics of interbank forint/euro trading," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 1(2), pages 21-26, December.
  31. Hanousek, Jan & Podpiera, Richard, 2003. "Informed trading and the bid-ask spread: evidence from an emerging market," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 275-296, June.
  32. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
  33. M. Frömmel & A. Mende & L. Menkhoff, 2007. "Order Flows, News, and Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/474, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  34. Norbert Kiss M., 2004. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on Money Markets," MNB Occasional Papers 2004/30, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  35. Hoffman, Dennis L & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1985. "The Impact of News and Alternative Theories of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 328-46, August.
  36. Csaba Csávás & Lóránt Varga, 2006. "Main characteristics of non-residents’ trading on the foreign exchange and government bond markets," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 13-20, June.
  37. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  38. Áron Gereben & György Gyomai & Norbert Kiss M., 2006. "Customer order flow, information and liquidity on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," MNB Working Papers 2006/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  39. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies; Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:16:y:2011:i:2:p:172-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.