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Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market



  • N. KISS M
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We investigate the relation between the intradaily HUF/EUR exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the intradaily exchange rate depends on both, news announcements and order flow. We conclude that news on the HUF/EUR market are transmitted directly via immediate reactions to news announcements as well as indirectly via order flow. We decompose the news’ total effect on exchange rate and find that order flow accounts for approximately three quarters, compared to one quarter for direct news impact. Although the HUF is pegged to the EUR, the exchange rate shows similar characteristics as reported in the literature for major currencies. It does, however, differ in quantitative terms: the importance of indirect news transmission is remarkably higher on the HUF/EUR market. Furthermore, we extend the commonly used set of news by communication of central bankers and significantly improve the explanatory power of the estimates. Thus, central bank communication can be regarded as an important determinant for the HUF/EUR rate.

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 09/626.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/626
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  1. Alexis Derviz, 2003. "FOREX Microstructure, Invisible Price Determinants,and the Central Bank's Understanding of Exchange Rate Formation," Working Papers 2003/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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  7. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005. "Do currency markets absorb news quickly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
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  26. repec:mnb:bullet:v:1:y:2006:i:2:p:21-26 is not listed on IDEAS
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  36. Norbert Kiss M., 2004. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on Money Markets," MNB Occasional Papers 2004/30, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  37. Michael Melvin & Xixi Yin, . "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Working Papers 96/1, Arizona State University, Department of Economics.
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