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Oral Interventions Versus Actual Interventions in Fx Markets - An Event-Study Approach

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  • Marcel Fratzscher

Abstract

The article assesses whether exchange rate communication - or oral intervention - has been an effective policy tool for monetary authorities to influence exchange rates. It employs an event-study methodology that identifies intervention clusters or events. For the euro-dollar and the dollar-yen exchange rates, the article finds that both oral intervention events and actual intervention events have been highly successful over the short to medium-run. The article shows that the success of intervention events is related to market conditions and to the coordination among policy makers. It also finds that the success of communication and actual interventions is largely unrelated to monetary policy, thus suggesting that interventions primarily function through a coordination channel. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.

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  • Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Oral Interventions Versus Actual Interventions in Fx Markets - An Event-Study Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1079-1106, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:118:y:2008:i:530:p:1079-1106
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    Cited by:

    1. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, pages 73-88.
    2. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 910-945.
    4. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    5. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Teiletche, Jérôme, 2009. "Foreign-exchange intervention strategies and market expectations: insights from Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 432-446, July.
    8. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
    9. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    10. Srđan Marinković, 2014. "Non-Parametric Sign Test And Paired Samples Test Of Effectiveness Of Official Fx Intervention," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(202), pages 107-130, July – Se.
    11. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," DULBEA Working Papers 07-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 335-358, September.
    14. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
    15. Marcel Fratzscher & Oliver Goede & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Tobias Stöhr, 2015. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1518, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Beine, Michel & Janssen, Gust & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Should central bankers talk to the foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 776-803, September.
    17. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    18. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    20. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    21. Michal Adam & Witold Kozinski & Janusz Zielinski, 2013. "To what extent can central banks influence exchange rates with foreign exchange interventions? The case of Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 279-291 Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Zhang, Zhichao & Li, He & Zhang, Chuanjie, 2017. "Oral intervention in China: Efficacy of Chinese exchange rate communications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 24-34.

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