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Communication and exchange rate policy

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel

Abstract

This paper deals with the very short-term influence of "oral interventions" on the exchange rate of major currencies. The paper finds that official communication, as reported by wire services, are effective in influencing the US dollar-euro and yen-US dollar exchange rates in the desired direction on intervention days. Oral interventions are found to be substantially more effective if they deviate from the prevalent policy "mantra". They also tend to reduce market volatility whereas actual interventions raise volatility. A key result of the paper is that oral interventions are effective independently from the stance and direction of monetary policy as well as the occurrence of actual interventions. This suggests that oral interventions might constitute, on a short-term basis, an effective and largely autonomous policy tool. JEL Classification: E61, E58, F31

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 363, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004363
    Note: 335955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    communication; euro area; exchange rate; intervention; policy; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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