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A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics

  • Rich Lyons
  • Martin Evans

We present a new class of general equilibrium model to study exchange rate dynamics. Our model synthesizes the new micro and macro approaches by incorporating the micro foundations of asset market trading into a dynamic, two country general equilibrium setting. We use the model to study how dispersed information from the real economy is aggregated by trading, and embedded into exchange rates and interest rates. The presence of dispersed information generates a new factor that contributes to the foreign exchange risk premium and a new source of exchange rate dynamics. Our analysis also provides a general equilibrium explanation for the role of order flow in exchange rate determination.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 622.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:622
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
  5. M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
  6. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
  7. Martin D.D. Evans, H. Henry Cao, Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Inventory Information," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-33, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2002. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 197-268 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  13. Hoidal Bjonnes, Geir & Rime, Dagfinn, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 17, Institute for Financial Research.
  14. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
  15. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, December.
  16. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  17. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  18. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  19. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
  22. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter.
  24. Margarida Duarte & Alan C. Stockman, 2001. "Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 8362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  26. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  27. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  28. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, March.
  29. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  30. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
  31. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
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