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On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models

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  • Charles Engel

Abstract

This paper investigates the behavior of the foreign exchange risk premium in two recent two-country intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium models with sticky nominal prices: Obstfeld-Rogoff (1998) and Devereux-Engel (1998). The foreign exchange risk premium in any general equilibrium model arises from the correlation of the exchange rate with consumption. In flexible price models, that requires correlation of monetary and output supply shocks. In sticky-price models, the correlation arises endogenously because monetary shocks cause output and consumption to change. The size of the risk premium depends on how prices are set (in producers' currencies versus consumers' currencies), and on the form of the money demand function. In some cases, the risk premium generated by the model is quite large.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7067 Note: AP IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    2. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    3. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
    4. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-316, August.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September.
    9. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    3. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2002. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-411, December.
    4. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "An incomplete markets explanation of the UIP puzzle," FinMaP-Working Papers 53, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    5. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    6. Burton Hollifield & Armir Yaron, "undated". "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. Stijn van Nieuwerburgh & Michael Kumhof, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," 2005 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
    9. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    10. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 4109, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    12. Dale Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact Utilities under Alternative Monetary Rules in a Simple Macro Model with Optimizing Agents," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 507-535, November.
    13. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    14. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2005. "Rational speculation and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-29, January.
    15. Kim, Jinill & Henderson, Dale W., 2005. "Inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting: When and why are they suboptimal?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1463-1495, November.
    16. Lorand Ambrus-Lakatos & Balazs Vilagi & Janos Vincze, 2004. "Deviations from interest rate parity in small open economies: A quantitative-theoretical investigation," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    17. Kumhof, Michael, 2010. "On the theory of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1403-1420, August.
    18. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2010. "Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from South Africa," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(60), pages 7-52, October -.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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