IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)

We address the puzzle of what determines exchange rates by examining information aggregation in a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) setting. Unlike other DGE macro models, which enrich either preference structures or production structures, our model enriches the information structure. The model departs from microstructure-style modeling by identifying real activities where dispersed information originates, as well as the technology by which information is subsequently aggregated and impounded. Results relevant to the determination puzzle include: (1) persistent gaps between exchange rates and fundamentals, (2) excess volatility relative to fundamentals, (3) exchange rate movements without macro news, (4) little or no exchange rate movement when macro news occurs, and (5) a structural rationale for why transaction flows perform well in accounting for monthly exchange rate changes, whereas macro variables perform poorly.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: None

Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~05-05-04.

in new window

Date of creation: 04 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~05-05-04
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036

Phone: 202-687-6074
Fax: 202-687-6102
Web page:

Order Information: Postal: Roger Lagunoff Professor of Economics Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
Web: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hoidal Bjonnes, Geir & Rime, Dagfinn, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 17, Institute for Financial Research.
  2. Martin Evans, 2000. "FX trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
  4. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. H.Hau & W.Killeen & M.Moore, 2003. "How has the euro Changed the Foreign Exchange Market?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 79, Netherlands Central Bank.
  7. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. H. Henry Cao & Richard K. Lyons & Martin D.D. Evans, 2003. "Inventory Information," NBER Working Papers 9893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
  13. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
  14. M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
  15. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 8303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  17. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
  18. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233403, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  19. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
  20. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  21. Margarida Duarte & Alan C. Stockman, 2001. "Rational Speculation and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 8362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  23. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
  25. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  26. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles & Storgaard, Peter E., 2004. "Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 263-291, July.
  27. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, December.
  28. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  29. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  31. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  32. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "Introduction to "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 1-18 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  35. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~05-05-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcia Suss)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.