IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics

  • Ferreira Filipe, Sara

This paper contributes to the literature on international portfolio choice in several ways. First, I generalize the model of Dunne et al. (2010) and derive order flow as the result of correlated belief changes by heterogeneous investors. This strategy delivers testable implications for the daily dynamics of stock flows, equity returns, and exchange rate changes. Second, I empirically confirm these conditions using fifteen years of high-frequency data for US stocks and daily data for twenty US bilateral exchange rates. Third, the model relies on differences in the volatility of country-specific shocks to account for the empirical results. It can explain why the ‘portfolio rebalancing motive’ is not important for commodity countries, as well as the asymmetric structure of currency and stock returns.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539812000163
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 359-381

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:359-381
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  3. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," NBER Working Papers 7462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  8. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2010. "International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 358-386, March.
  9. Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Theoharry Grammatikos & Robert Vermeulen, 2011. "Transmission of the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises to the EMU: Stock Prices, CDS Spreads and Exchange Rates," DNB Working Papers 287, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  11. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Dan Andrews & Daniel Rees, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Terms of Trade Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Rui Albuquerque & Eva De Francisco & Luis B. Marques, 2008. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2297-2343, October.
  14. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Underwood, Shane, 2009. "The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 268-289, May.
  17. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2005. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Time-varying liquidity in foreign exchange," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1025-1051, July.
  19. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  20. repec:oup:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:1:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Samuel Malone, 2005. "Managing Default Risk for Commodity Dependent Countries: Price Hedging in an Optimizing Model," Economics Series Working Papers 246, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  22. Chaban, Maxym, 2009. "Commodity currencies and equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 836-852, September.
  23. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
  24. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 10476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  26. Tarun Chordia, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, 04.
  27. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
  28. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  29. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Viallet, Claude J., 1992. "Equity risk premia and the pricing of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 199-219, November.
  30. Richard M. Levich & Gregory S. Hayt & Beth A. Ripston, 1999. "1998 Survey of Derivatives and Risk Management Practices by U.S. Institutional Investors," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-074, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  31. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:359-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.