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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

  • Yu-Chin Chen
  • Kenneth Rogoff
  • Barbara Rossi

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13901.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Publication status: published as Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194, August.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13901
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