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Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?

  • Kenneth Rogoff

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10290-009-0006-5
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Article provided by Springer & Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 145 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:145:y:2009:i:1:p:1-12
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  4. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Tanya Molodtsova & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2009. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," Emory Economics 0903, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  10. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  11. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  13. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," NBER Working Papers 13910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," NBER Working Papers 7026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Helene Rey & Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," 2005 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  17. Bilson, John F. O., 1979. "The deutsche mark/dollar rate : A monetary analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-101, January.
  18. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," Post-Print hal-00612581, HAL.
  19. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
  20. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  22. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  23. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
  24. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  25. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  26. Paul R. Krugman, 1985. "Is the strong dollar sustainable?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 103-155.
  27. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 435-467, 07.
  28. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  30. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  31. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
  33. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  34. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
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