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Current account dynamics and monetary policy

  • Andrea Ferrero
  • Mark Gertler
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

We explore the implications of current account adjustment for monetary policy within a simple two country SGE model. Our framework nests Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2005) static model of exchange rate responsiveness to current account reversals. It extends this approach by endogenizing the dynamic adjustment path and by incorporating production and nominal price rigidities in order to study the role of monetary policy. We consider two different adjustment scenarios. The first is a "slow burn" where the adjustment of the current account deficit of the home country is smooth and slow. The second is a "fast burn" where, owing to a sudden shift in expectations of relative growth rates, there is a rapid reversal of the home country's current account. We examine several different monetary policy regimes under each of these scenarios. Our principal finding is that the behavior of the domestic variables (for instance, output, inflation) is quite sensitive to the monetary regime, while the behavior of the international variables (for instance, the current account and the real exchange rate) is less so. Among different policy rules, domestic inflation targeting achieves the best stabilization outcome of aggregate variables. This result is robust to the presence of imperfect pass-through on import prices, although in this case stabilization of consumer price inflation performs similarly well.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-26.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-26
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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  13. Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7xc0g8mm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  15. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  20. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2009. "The Rise of the Service Economy," NBER Working Papers 14822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Designing target rules for international monetary policy cooperation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3759, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  27. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
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