IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedgpr/y2005x10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Smooth landing or crash? model based scenarios of global current account rebalancing

Author

Abstract

This paper re-examines the implications, risks, and attendant policies surrounding global rebalancing of current accounts through the lens of a dynamic, multi-region model of the global economy. In the baseline scenario, world macroeconomic imbalances of the early 2000s can be attributed to a combination of six related but distinct tendencies: (i)expansionary U.S. fiscal policy, (ii) declining rate of U.S. private savings, (iii) increased foreign demand for U.S. assets, particularly in Asia, (iv) strong productivity growth in emerging Asia, (v) lagging productivity growth in Japan and the euro area, and (vi) gaining export competitiveness in emerging Asia. The baseline projects stabilizing U.S. public and foreign debt (albeit at higher levels) and a gradual depreciation of the dollar, allowing the U.S. external deficit to gradually move to a sustainable level. An alternative scenario, involving a sudden portfolio reshuffling in the rest of the world, would result in higher U.S. real interest rates, a significantly weaker dollar, with harmful effects on U.S. (and possibly global) growth. More flexible exchange rates in emerging Asia can help reduce variability in both regional output and inflation. Other simulations consider the effects of U.S. fiscal adjustment, as well as growth-enhancing structural reforms in Europe and Japan.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth landing or crash? model based scenarios of global current account rebalancing," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/events/conferences/if20051202/program.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    8. Sébastien Jean & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2004. "Regulation and Wage Premia," Working Papers 2004-12, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    2. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    3. Michele Cavallo & Cedric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," 2006 Meeting Papers 252, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Financial flows, financial crises, and global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 469-480.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Martinez Oliva, 2012. "Reducing Global Imbalances: Can Fixed Exchange Rates and Current Account Limits Help?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 163-192, February.
    7. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity? A scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2651-2689, August.
    8. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    11. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    12. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    14. Zoltán M. Jakab, 2006. "Consequences of global imbalance corrections for Hungary," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(2), pages 27-34, December.
    15. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2013. "Currency War Or Currency Peace: The Dollar And Renminbi In A World Of Portfolio And Current Account Imbalances," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-34.
    16. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th., 2010. "Adjustment of US external imbalances: At what horizon?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 166-168, March.
    17. Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations [‘Micro effects of macro announcements: Real-time price discovery in foreign exchange’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 364-409.
    18. José De Gregorio, 2005. "Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 15, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    20. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric models; International trade; Fiscal policy - United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.