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Current account adjustment with high financial integration: a scenario analysis

Author

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  • Michele Cavallo
  • Cédric Tille

Abstract

A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar. We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of international financial integration, with exchange rate movements having a direct valuation impact on international assets and liabilities. In particular, a dollar depreciation generates a capital gain for the United States by boosting the value of its assets that are denominated in foreign currencies. We consider an adjustment scenario in which the U.S. net external debt is held constant. One key finding is that while the current account moves into balance, the pace of adjustment is smooth. Intuitively, the valuation gains stemming from the depreciation of the dollar allow the United States to finance ongoing, albeit shrinking, current account deficits. We find that the smooth pattern of adjustment is robust to alternative scenarios, although the ultimate movements in exchange rates are affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Current account adjustment with high financial integration: a scenario analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 31-45.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:2006:p:31-45
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-review/2006/er31-45.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Chris Telmer, 2005. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," 2005 Meeting Papers 115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    5. Michele Cavallo & Cedric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Staff Reports 237, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe," NBER Working Papers 11520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 199-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    3. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 2: Global Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 50-67, March.
    5. Hickey, Ronan, 2007. "How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-119, October.

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