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Chapter 2: Global Imbalances

Listed author(s):
  • Lars Calmfors
  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Seppo Honkapohja
  • John Kay
  • Gilles Saint-Paul
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm
  • Xavier Vives

Huge global imbalances have emerged as a result of the massive current account deficits of the US. The US deficit is largely matched by surpluses in Asia, oil-exporting countries and a few European countries. Correction of global imbalances will require substantial depreciation of the US dollar, though the extent of the adjustment cannot be precisely estimated. The correction of global imbalances could lead to a prolonged fall in the external demand for European products as well as to increased competition from US firms. A large enough fall of the dollar could cause substantial negative wealth shocks arising from reductions in the value of Europe’s dollar-denominated assets. The risk of a financial crisis will increase if a large fall in the dollar is accompanied by a drop in US and worldwide output. It would be difficult to deal with such a crisis under the current frameworks for monetary and fiscal policy. The sizeable government budget deficits in some large EU countries imply that fiscal policy may not enjoy the necessary room for manoeuvre in such a situation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-EEAG_Report/zs-eeag-2006/eeag_report_chap2_2006.pdf
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Article provided by CESifo Group Munich in its journal EEAG Report on the European Economy.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): (03)
Pages: 50-67

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Handle: RePEc:ces:eeagre:v::y:2006:i::p:50-67
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  1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
  10. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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