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An asset-pricing view of external adjustment

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  • Pavlova, Anna
  • Rigobon, Roberto

Abstract

Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability - the trade balance and current account - are misleading because they omit capital gains on net foreign asset positions. We adjust the definition of the current account to include the capital gains and discuss how this may affect our thinking about external adjustment and sustainability. We do so in the context of a two-country macro-finance model of Pavlova and Rigobon (2008a) that allows exploration of the interconnections between equilibrium portfolios and external accounts' dynamics. We calibrate the model and find that it generates several testable implications, some of which have already been validated empirically. First, we establish dynamic properties of the capital-gains adjusted current account and show that they are fundamentally different from those of the conventional current account. Second, we find that capital gains have a stabilizing effect on the trade balance and the current account. Finally, we demonstrate that in response to a shock, the conventional and the capital-gains adjusted current accounts may move in opposite directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:80:y:2010:i:1:p:144-156
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 67-109 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    4. Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Mariam CAMARERO & Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Cecilio TAMARIT, "undated". "External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe?," EcoMod2010 259600036, EcoMod.
    5. Matteo Maggiori, 2013. "The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium," 2013 Meeting Papers 75, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    8. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    9. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    10. Ehling, Paul & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian, 2015. "Complete and incomplete financial markets in multi-good economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 438-462.
    11. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    12. Trani, Tommaso, 2015. "Asset pledgeability and international transmission of financial shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-77.
    13. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "Why Are Exchange Rates So Smooth? A Household Finance Explanation," Working Papers 2015-39, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 26 Sep 2017.
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    15. Eugeni, Sara, 2015. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects," MPRA Paper 63549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    17. Stepanchuk, Serhiy & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "Portfolio and welfare consequences of debt market dominance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 89-101.
    18. Khalil, Makram, 2016. "Cross-Border Portfolio Diversification under Trade Linkages," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145811, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Masahiro Endoh, 2012. "Return Differentials of Foreign Investment among OECD Countries," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-016, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
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    21. Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2011. "Limited participation and International Risk-Sharing," 2011 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Andrea Civelli, 2016. "Excess Returns, Average Returns and the Adjustment Mechanism of the External Position of a Country," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 226-252, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account Portfolio choice Incomplete markets International finance Asset pricing Valuation effects;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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