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International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account

  • Kollmann, Robert

This paper analyses the determinants of international asset portfolios, using a neoclassical dynamic general equilibrium model with home bias in consumption. For plausible parameter values, the model explains the fact that typical investors hold most of their wealth in domestic assets (portfolio home bias). In the model, the current account balance (change in net foreign assets) is mainly driven by fluctuations in equity prices; the current account is predicted to be highly volatile and to exhibit low serial correlation; changes in a country's foreign equity assets and liabilities are predicted to be highly positively correlated. The paper constructs current account series that include external capital gains/losses, for 17 OECD economies. The behaviour of those series confirms the theoretical predictions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5512.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5512
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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
  3. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2006. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Imperfectly Integrated Financial Markets," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06014, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  4. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
  5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman, 1999. "Explaining International Comovements of Output and Asset Returns; The Role of Money and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 99/84, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Robert Kollmann, 2006. "A dynamic general equilibrium model of international portfolio holding: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7622, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. Robert Kollmann, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7624, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  10. Jun-Koo Kang & Rene M. Stulz, 1995. "Why Is There a Home Bias? An Analysis of Foreign Portfolio Equity Ownership in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jean Tirole, 2003. "Inefficient Foreign Borrowing: A Dual-and Common-Agency Perspective," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000136, David K. Levine.
  12. Alan G. Ahearne & William L. Griever & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of U.S. holdings of foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers 691, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Devereux, Michael B & Saito, Makoto, 2006. "A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 5746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  16. Baxter, M. & Jermann, U.J., 1993. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse than you Think," RCER Working Papers 350, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/108, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Bottazzi, Laura & Pesenti, Paolo & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "Wages, profits and the international portfolio puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 219-254, February.
  19. Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; a Time-Series Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/50, International Monetary Fund.
  20. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Chris Telmer, 2005. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," 2005 Meeting Papers 115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  22. Uppal, Raman, 1993. " A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 529-53, June.
  23. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
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