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Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim

Abstract

Bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behaviour across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analysed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behaviour of third country exchange rates, there is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim, 1998. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1970
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    Keywords

    Panel Data; Trade Elasticities;

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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