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Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures

Listed author(s):
  • Philip Lane
  • Jay C. Shambaugh

Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements. Further, we demonstrate that many developing countries hold short foreign-currency positions, leaving them open to negative valuation effects when the domestic currency depreciates. However, we also show that many of these countries have substantially reduced their foreign currency exposure over the last decade. Last, we show that our currency measure has high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics: exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed and may entail substantial wealth shocks.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13433.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13433.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
Publication status: published as Philip R Lane & Jay C Shambaugh, 2007. "Financial exchange rates and international currency exposures," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 90-127 Bank for International Settlements.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13433
Note: IFM
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National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, January.
  2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
  4. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2001. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," NBER Working Papers 8476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
  6. Anna Wong, 2007. "Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification," Working Paper Series WP07-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Devereux, M.B. & Lane, P.R., 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," CEG Working Papers 20025, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEG Working Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  12. Michael B. Devereux & Makoto Saito, 2006. "A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows," Working Papers 112006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2004. "External Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7bw468wx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  14. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, 04.
  15. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2010. "The long or short of it: Determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 33-44, January.
  16. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
  17. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," IMF Working Papers 07/284, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies; An Assessment of the New Merchantilism," IMF Working Papers 07/146, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," DELTA Working Papers 2001-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  22. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
  23. Edwin M. Truman & Anna Wong, 2006. "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard," Working Paper Series WP06-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  24. Philip R. Lane & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "International Financial Integration," IMF Working Papers 03/86, International Monetary Fund.
  25. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, 02.
  26. Barry J. Eichengreen & Donald J Mathieson, 2000. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves; Retrospect and Prospect," IMF Working Papers 00/131, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 06/170, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  29. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp190, IIIS.
  31. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2006. "The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar; Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data," IMF Working Papers 06/153, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
  34. Chris Becker & Daniel Fabbro, 2006. "Limiting Foreign Exchange Exposure through Hedging: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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