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Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism

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  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu
  • Mr. Marco Terrones

Abstract

Financial globalization was off to a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops in the 1990s. The surge in foreign reserves since then is viewed as a New Merchantilism in which reserves are a war-chest for defense against Sudden Stops. We conduct a quantitative assessment of this argument using a framework in which precautionary savings affect foreign assets via business cycle volatility, financial globalization, and endogenous Sudden Stops. Our results show that financial globalization and Sudden Stop risk are plausible explanations of the surge in reserves but cyclical volatility, which has declined in the globalization period, is not.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Mr. Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism," IMF Working Papers 2007/146, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/146
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; business cycle; debt limit; precautionary demand; globalization period; D. baseline result; business cycle volatility; Sudden Stop economy; effects of Volatility; Sudden stops; Foreign assets; Precautionary savings; Consumption; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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