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A Portfolio Model of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

  • Michael B Devereux

    (University of British Columbia, Canada)

  • Alan Sutherland

    (University of St Andrews, UK)

Since the crises of the late 1990's, most emerging market economies have built up substantial positive holdings of US dollar treasury bills, while at the same time experiencing a boom in FDI capital inflows. This paper develops a DSGE model of the interaction between an emerging market economy and an advanced economy which incorporates two-way capital flows between the economies. The novel aspect of the paper is to make use of new methods for analyzing portfolio choice in DSGE models. We compare a range of alternative financial market structures, in each case computing equilibrium portfolios. We find that an asymmetric configuration where the emerging economy holds nominal bonds and issues claims on capital (FDI) can achieve a considerable degree of international risk-sharing. This risk-sharing can be enhanced by a more stable monetary policy in the advanced economy.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 082009.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:082009
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  1. Samuelson, Paul A, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances, and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 537-42, October.
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  3. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
  4. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2006. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 12214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Baxter, M. & Jermann, U.J., 1993. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse than you Think," RCER Working Papers 350, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Eric Van Wincoop & Cedric Tille, 2007. "International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferreti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," Trinity Economics Papers 2000516, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  11. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations; Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2008. "Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," NBER Working Papers 14372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. Javier García-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," NBER Working Papers 12629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
  18. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
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