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Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account

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  • David Amdur
  • Eylem Ersal Kiziler

Abstract

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a twocountry, twogood business cycle model in which international asset trade is limited to a single, noncontingent bond. We identify trend and transitory shocks to U.S. productivity using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. The specification that best matches the data assigns a large role to trend shocks. The estimated model also captures key facts regarding international comovement.

Suggested Citation

  • David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:47:y:2014:i:2:p:494-516
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12087
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    Cited by:

    1. David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.
    2. Gruhle, Tobias & Harms, Philipp, 2022. "Producer Services and the Current Account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem, 2016. "International portfolio flows with growth shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 84-86.
    4. Carlos A. Yépez, 2020. "International risk sharing in emerging economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 434-459, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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