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What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks

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Abstract

The joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (valuation-adjusted) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson [2004], is shown to be strikingly consistent with current account theory. While US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, these contribute considerably to the variation in net output and, even more so, in gross foreign positions, arguably smoothing temporary variations in returns. A single permanent shock – naturally interpreted as a productivity shock – raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust only gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits but, interestingly, moves gross assets and liabilities in the same direction.

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou, 2009. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2009_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2009_03
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    Cited by:

    1. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    2. Ahmed, Shamim & Valente, Giorgio, 2015. "Understanding the price of volatility risk in carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-129.
    3. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    4. Christian Grisse & Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 317-339, April.
    5. Evans, Martin D.D., 2014. "External balances, trade flows and financial conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 271-290.
    6. D.D. Evans, Martin, 2017. "External balances, trade and financial conditions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 165-184.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2014. "The International Dimension Of Productivity And Demand Shocks In The Us Economy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 153-176, February.
    8. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    9. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does the structure of employment affect the external imbalances? Theory and evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 77-83.
    10. Yu-Hsi Chou, 2017. "Dissecting Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in the Modern Floating Era: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 165-194, February.
    11. Sauré, Philip, 2017. "Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 229-244.
    12. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account; Net ForeignWealth; Consumption Smoothing; Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account; International Adjustment Mechanism; Permanent-Transitory Decomposition.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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