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Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model

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In an estimated two-country DSGE model, we find that shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment account for more than half of the forecast variance of cyclical fluctuations in the US trade balance. Both domestic and foreign marginal efficiency shocks generate a strong effect on the variability of the imbalance, through shifts in international relative absorption. On the other hand, shocks to uncovered interest parity and foreign export prices, which transmit mainly via the terms of trade and exchange rate, have a strong influence at short forecast-horizons, before the investment disturbances begin their dominance.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2013/04.

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Length: 43 p.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2013/04
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