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Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model

  • P. JACOB
  • G. PEERSMAN

    ()

This paper presents empirical evidence on the stochastic driving forces of the US trade balance. In an estimated two-country DSGE model, we .find that investment- specific technology shocks have the strongest impact on the volatility of cyclical trade balance .fluctuations, especially when the shocks are domestic and considered over longer forecast-horizons. At shorter horizons, US and foreign inter-temporal shocks that generate co-movement between consumption and investment, have an impact com- parable to that of the investment-specific technology shocks. In contrast, shocks to US public spending and neutral technology - both forces traditionally used to explain trade balance fluctuations - hardly explain the volatility.

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 08/544.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:08/544
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